Dugout Vault
Inside the Vault
The sports card newsletter for collectors who want real intel, not hype.
Issue #11
June 30, 2026
newsletter.dugoutvault.app
"The Backlog Bottleneck"
PSA's 14-million-card pileup · A Mega Box case hit · Two Montgomerys on the Southside · A labor fight that should scare every collector
🔒 Vault Trivia — Grading Roots
PSA is sitting on the largest grading backlog in its history right now — but the company has been slabbing cards a lot longer than most collectors realize. In what year was PSA founded? Scroll to the bottom for the answer.
📬 Allen's Note

The family and I headed to the mountains of North Carolina for a much-needed vacation and to celebrate the 4th this weekend. As we did some shopping to stock up for a week in the mountains, we of course couldn't help ourselves and grabbed a couple boxes (the Walmart here had a really diverse selection — but mostly football). Made for a nice evening at the kitchen table. Charlie and I ripped a Donruss blaster and a couple Bowman Mega boxes; not a big spend, the kind of low-stakes fun rip I'll always recommend when you just want the fun of opening something. The Donruss blaster was Donruss being Donruss: loud and fun inserts, standard parallels, a few Rated Rookies, and a couple of numbered Montgomerys (more on that later) — nothing that'll change my life. The Mega box did not disappoint.

The headline pull: a Trey Yesavage Mega Futures SP (#MF-3) — a Mega Box–exclusive insert that falls 1:80 packs per Topps' published odds (Checklist Insider). Pulling a true case-hit-level card out of two boxes is the kind of variance that makes you walk a victory lap around the kitchen. Yesavage is the Blue Jays flamethrower everybody's been chasing since his postseason, and he's the subject of The Card Worth Knowing below, so I'll save the deep dive.

The other two keepers came out of the Donruss blaster, and both — fittingly — wear Chicago's south side: a Colson Montgomery on a gold parallel numbered /299, and a Braden Montgomery Rated Prospect on a Donruss Optic orange-shimmer parallel numbered /79. Colson's already manning shortstop on the South Side; Braden announced himself in the loudest way possible — a two-run walk-off homer off Raisel Iglesias in the 10th to sink, of all teams, my Braves 6–5 in his June 9 MLB debut, making him just the fifth player since 1900 to go walk-off in his first game. Two different players, same last name, same rebuild, pulled side by side out of one $25 blaster. You can't script that.

Now the part that isn't fun. The reason I keep half an eye on the calendar instead of just the next rip: the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1, 2026, and the two sides are about as far apart as I've seen them. Owners are pushing a hard salary cap; the union has spent sixty years refusing one. A lockout this winter is now the widely expected outcome (ESPN, June 2026). I'll say it plainly: a work stoppage would be terrible — for the game, and for this hobby. No games means no new highlights, no rookie call-ups to chase, no reason for a casual fan to wander into a card shop in March. The hobby runs on baseball being on. We broke down what a stoppage could mean for card values on the blog — read the lockout primer here. Let's get into the issue.

📊 Market Pulse — The Backlog Bottleneck
14 million cards and counting

If you've got cards sitting in a PSA queue right now, you already feel this one. PSA's global backlog has ballooned to roughly 14 million cards — the largest in company history — after the company temporarily paused its cheapest Value tiers on June 2 and collectors responded by flooding the system with an estimated 4 million additional submissions before the door closed (Baseball America; PSA Service Level Update). The irony writes itself: a pause meant to relieve the backlog briefly made it worse.

PSA grades around 90,000 cards a day and says it's targeting a return to roughly 5 million units in the queue — a dig-out it projects could take up to four months. It's now publishing a public Backlog Tracker, updated bi-weekly, so you can watch the number move. Here's where turnaround actually sits today:

Service Tier Status (as of late June 2026) Est. Turnaround
Value ($39–59) Paused since June 2
Regular Open 40–60 days
Express Open 15–20 days
Super Express Open 5–10 days

Source: PSA submission updates & PSA Backlog Tracker, accessed June 28, 2026. Turnaround times are estimates and move with the queue.

What it means for your money: when graded supply backs up like this, two things tend to happen. Already-slabbed cards of hot players hold a premium because no new PSA 10s are hitting the market quickly, and raw copies of those same players can soften a touch because the easy "buy raw, grade it, flip it" path now takes two months instead of two weeks. The arbitrage everyone leaned on just got slower and riskier.

Patient play: If you're holding raw cards you intended to grade-and-flip, the math has changed — factor in a 40–60 day Regular turnaround (and your capital tied up the whole time) before you submit. If you're buying, this is a window where clean, already-graded PSA 10s of players you believe in are worth the premium over raw, precisely because you skip the line. And if you've got bulk Value-tier submissions you were sitting on, watch the Backlog Tracker — there's no prize for being first in line when the line is 14 million deep.
🪓 Chop Talk — Braves Corner

Let's not sugarcoat it: June was a slog. The Braves are still 46–25 and sitting on a comfortable lead in the NL East, but they've dropped 8 of their last 11 — including, of all things, a series loss to those same rebuilding White Sox whose Montgomerys I just pulled (CBS Sports). The swoon is mostly an injury story: Ronald Acuña Jr. re-aggravated the same hamstring and is reportedly a long way from returning, Spencer Strider is on the 60-day IL with elbow trouble, and Drake Baldwin has scuffled badly since coming back from an oblique strain. Even a 101-win pace feels shaky when the training room is that full.

The good news drops Tuesday. AJ Smith-Shawver — out since Tommy John surgery last June — begins a minor-league rehab assignment, with a start lined up for Single-A Augusta on June 30 (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). He's got up to 30 days on the rehab clock and is tracking toward a post-All-Star return to the big-league rotation. A young, controllable arm rejoining a banged-up staff is exactly the kind of reinforcement this team needs to steady the second half.

The Braves fan take: A June swoon with this much of the roster in the trainer's room is survivable when you've banked a lead this big — that's what the hot start was for. Watch the Smith-Shawver rehab closely. If his velocity and command come back clean over the next few weeks, his Bowman Chrome prospect autos are a quiet buy-low before he's back on a major-league mound and the casual money notices.

Sources: CBS Sports · AJC · MLB.com standings, accessed June 28, 2026.

🃏 The Card Worth Knowing
Trey Yesavage
RHP · Toronto Blue Jays · The Mega Box case hit · Age 22
2026 Bowman Mega Futures #MF-3 (Mega Box–exclusive SP)
The case-hit pull: 1:80 packs, Mega-only. Early market ~$20 raw, with PSA 10s asking $135–$175 — thin volume, prices still forming.
~$20
MF-3 raw (early)
$135–$175
MF-3 PSA 10 (early)
1:80
Mega Futures pack odds

The reason to know Yesavage right now is the one sitting in my Mega Box: he went from "interesting arm" to "must-chase" on the back of a record-setting nine-strikeout MLB debut, and the card market noticed immediately — nearly 450 of his cards changed hands on eBay in the 24 hours after he debuted (Sports Collectors Daily). He's a true power-pitching prospect on a contender, which is the exact profile collectors pay up for.

Here's the part that matters for how you play it. The card I pulled — the Mega Futures #MF-3 — is a Mega Box–exclusive short print at 1:80 packs, so it's genuinely scarce. Early sales are forming around ~$20 raw, with PSA 10 copies asking $135–$175 (early eBay listings, late June 2026 — thin volume, so treat these as a forming range, not a fixed comp). That spread is the whole story: a $20 card becomes a $150 card the moment it's slabbed a 10 — which, given the backlog above, is now a two-month round trip. For the broader floor and ceiling on Yesavage, look at the cards that have longer history. His 2026 Bowman #41 paper base rookie is dirt cheap — recent eBay sold listings sit around $1.72 raw, with graded copies estimated near $12.84 in a 9 and roughly $38 in a PSA 10 (and note: essentially no PSA 10 sales on record yet, so that's an estimate, not a comp) (SportsCardsPro, accessed June 28, 2026). The real value lives in the autographs: his 1st Bowman Chrome auto averages about $153 raw, and a 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Red Refractor auto /5 in a PSA 10 sold for $3,350 back in August 2025 (Prospect Card Radar). The numbered parallels — Aqua /125, Green /99, Gold auto /50 — have all firmed up as he's risen.

The thesis in one line: a 1:80 Mega-exclusive of a young arm who's already flashed front-of-rotation stuff is a real card to hold, but the gradeable autos are where long-term conviction belongs. And remember the Market Pulse above — if your plan is to grade the MF-3 or that base RC, you're now looking at a two-month wait before you find out if it's a 10.

What to Watch: Innings and health, the eternal pitcher caveat. Yesavage's value is a bet on a power arm staying on the mound. A clean run of starts and the autos keep climbing; the first elbow twinge and the speculative parallels cool first and fastest. If you believe, buy the recognizable, gradeable auto you'd be content to hold through a rough stretch — not the high-number parallel you're hoping to flip next week.

Sources: Checklist Insider (MF-3 / odds) · SportsCardsPro · Prospect Card Radar · Sports Collectors Daily. MF-3 figures are early eBay listings (late June 2026, thin volume); all prices move daily.

📅 What's Dropping
JUN
29
2026 Topps Tribute Baseball (pre-order open)
Premium, low-count product mixing legends and current stars with on-card autos and relics. Pre-orders opened June 29; release window runs through July 12. For collectors who want a polished, established checklist over prospect lottery tickets.
Pre-Order
JUL
01
2026 Topps Complete & Factory Sets Baseball
The full flagship base set in one box — hobby and retail factory-set versions, often with exclusive bonus packs. The low-variance, completist play: you know exactly what you're getting. For set builders and anyone who wants the whole base run without chasing singles.
Drops Tomorrow
JUL
03
2026 Panini Donruss Elite Baseball
Classic Donruss DNA with the Elite treatment — die-cuts, Status parallels, and on-card autos. A stylistically distinct mid-range option outside the Topps ecosystem. For player collectors who want something different on the shelf.
Premium
JUL
08
2026 Topps Finest Baseball
Chrome's flashier cousin — refractors, bold inserts, and a rookie-heavy checklist collectors love to grade (queue permitting — see above). Mid-premium price, strong single-card resale on the right rookies. For refractor chasers and rookie speculators.
Premium
JUL
22
2026 Topps Chrome Baseball (pre-order open)
The big one — and this year it kicks off Chrome's 30th-anniversary celebration with a chromium finish on select Series 1 & 2 cards. The most important rookie-card product of the summer: refractors, the full RC class, and the cards everyone sends to grade. For everyone; this is the set most readers will actually chase.
Headliner Pre-Order

Dates per Beckett & WaxStat release calendars; release dates are subject to change — confirm at topps.com/release-calendar.

🔓 Vault Trivia — Answer
1991

Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) was founded in 1991 as part of David Hall's Collectors Universe, introducing the tamper-evident slab and the 1–10 grading scale that became the hobby standard.

Thirty-five years later, that same company is sitting on a record ~14-million-card backlog — a reminder of just how far the grading business has come from the early-'90s skepticism that a third party could ever tell you what your card was really worth.